Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon is calling 2026 a “dealmaking renaissance” and predicting it will be a “top-decile” year for M&A activity globally. Global deal volume jumped 40% in 2025 after two years of drought, and the momentum is accelerating into 2026 with another 11% increase projected.
The restaurant industry is at the center of it. In the last 14 months, private equity firms and strategic buyers have closed more than $10 billion in restaurant transactions, and the biggest deal of the cycle hasn’t even gone public yet.
The Deals That Define the Cycle
Blackstone acquired Jersey Mike’s for $8 billion in January 2025. Eighteen months later, the company is preparing an IPO targeting a $12 billion valuation, a 50% markup that would make it one of the fastest PE flips in restaurant history. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are advising. The brand has 3,000+ locations, 20 consecutive years of same-store sales growth, and AUVs that have climbed 57% since 2019.
Denny’s completed a $620 million take-private in January 2026, its first time under private ownership since 1997. TriArtisan Capital Advisors, Yadav Enterprises, and Treville Capital Group paid a 52% premium over the November stock price. Shareholders approved it overwhelmingly, with 39.5 million shares voting in favor and just 178,000 against.
California Pizza Kitchen sold for roughly $300 million to Consortium Brand Partners in December 2025. The 120-location chain filed for bankruptcy in 2020 and has since recovered enough to attract acquisition interest and a growth plan built around franchise expansion and retail distribution across 10,000+ grocery stores.
Roark Capital took a 75% controlling stake in Dave’s Hot Chicken at a $1 billion valuation in June 2025. The LA-born brand had 315 locations and U.S. sales that surged 57% in a single year, surpassing $600 million. RaceTrac acquired Potbelly for $566 million in October 2025 at a 47% premium. Bob Evans changed hands in February 2026 when 4x4 Capital acquired the 420-location family dining brand from Golden Gate Capital.
Why Capital Is Flowing In Now
Two forces are converging. First, private equity firms are sitting on more than $2 trillion in dry powder after holding assets through the 2023-2024 deal drought. Limited partners are pressuring fund managers to deploy capital and return proceeds. That pressure is creating what Goldman Sachs describes as a “liquidity imperative” that will drive a wave of exits, acquisitions, and secondary buyouts.
Second, the regulatory environment has shifted. The Goldman Sachs analysis describes a move from blanket opposition to transformative mergers toward “regulatory pragmatism,” meaning conditional approvals rather than automatic rejections. That shift has emboldened boards to pursue deals they would have shelved two years ago.
For restaurants specifically, the math is straightforward. The asset class has proven its resilience through COVID, inflation, and labor cost increases. Brands with strong unit economics and franchise infrastructure are commanding premium multiples because PE firms know the playbook: acquire, optimize operations, expand the franchise system, and exit through an IPO or secondary sale.
The Boomer Exit Wave Is Just Starting
McKinsey published a report in February 2026 on what they call “The Great Ownership Transfer.” Six million small and mid-size businesses representing $5 trillion in enterprise value will face ownership transitions by 2035 as baby boomers retire. Cerulli Associates estimates $1.4 trillion in wealth will transfer annually to Gen X over the next decade.
The problem is that fewer than a third of small business owners have a succession plan. And according to McKinsey, 92% of small business market exits happen through closure rather than sale. Only 5% complete as transactions. McKinsey’s assessment is blunt: “Buying and selling a small business is often harder than starting one because the systems that support entrepreneurship in the United States are currently built for founding companies, not transferring them.”
That gap between the number of businesses hitting the market and the infrastructure available to transfer them is where brokerage firms earn their value.
What This Means for SoCal Restaurant Owners
The capital markets are telling a clear story. When Blackstone pays $8 billion for a sub chain and expects to flip it at $12 billion eighteen months later, that is not a distressed play. When three separate buyer groups pay a 52% premium to take Denny’s private, that reflects genuine conviction about the asset class.
That conviction flows down to every level of the market. SBA lending remains active. Buyer demand for well-run independent restaurants with clean financials and transferable leases has not softened. The PE activity at the top of the market validates restaurant ownership as an investment thesis, which supports valuations at every scale.
If you are a restaurant owner in Southern California thinking about your next chapter, the environment for selling has rarely been this favorable. Capital is available, buyers are motivated, and the broader M&A market is moving faster than it has in years. The boomer retirement wave means more businesses will hit the market over the next decade, which means the owners who prepare early and position their financials cleanly will have the strongest negotiating leverage.
The question is whether you are ready to move while the window is still this wide.
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